Characterization of interannual and seasonal variability of hydro-climatic trends in the Upper Indus Basin

High-resolution seasonal and annual precipitation climatologies for the Upper Indus Basin were developed on basis of 1995–2017 normals obtained from four-gridded datasets (APHRODITE, CHIRPS, PERSIANN-CDR, ERA5) quality-controlled high- mid-elevation station observations. Monthly is estimated through anomaly method at catchment scale, then, it compared with observed discharges over 1975–2017 period verification detection changes in hydrological cycle. Running trends spectral analysis gridded dataset performed. The Mann–Kendall test was employed to detect significance whereas Pettitt used identify change points discharge time series. results indicate that bias corrected CHIRPS precipitation, followed by ERA5, performed better terms RMSE, MAE, MAPE, BIAS against rain gauge running trend exhibits a slight increase but shows significant winter precipitation. A runoff coefficient greater than one, especially glacierized sub-catchments Shigar, Shyok, Astore, Gilgit, indicates likely be underestimated glacial melt provides excess volumes warming climate. Streamflow variability found pronounced rather scale. Kachura gauges are slightly significantly increasing. Seasonal reveals more complex regimes, varying different catchments, its comparison favors deeper understanding snow-, ice-melt dynamics, addressing hydroclimatic behavior Karakoram region some weaknesses monitoring network high altitude.